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Fed Holds Zero Rates as Powell Warns Virus Spike Hitting Economy

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The Path Forward for the Economy is Extraordinarily Uncertain

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned the U.S. faced the most severe economic downturn ‘in our lifetime’ as the central bank left interest rates near zero and vowed to use all its tools to support a recovery.

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Powell told reporters that supporting the recovery would need help from both monetary and fiscal policy, in a nod to ongoing negotiations among lawmakers and the Trump administration in Washington to refresh taxpayer support before current assistance runs out.

Markets Steady Amid Fed Decision

The dollar briefly extended its decline following the decision, while U.S. stocks maintained their gains and gold remained buoyant. The 10-year Treasury yield was steady on the day around 0.58 per cent as the U.S. bond curve steepened.

Fed Extends Liquidity Swap Lines and Repurchase Agreement Facility

The vote, to leave the federal funds target rate in a range of 0 per cent to 0.25 per cent, was unanimous. The FOMC also reiterated its pledge to increase its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities ‘at least at the current pace’ over coming months.

In a separate statement Wednesday, the Fed said it extended its dollar liquidity swap lines and the temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities through March 31, 2021.

Powell’s Warning on Virus Spike Hitting Economy

Powell and his FOMC colleagues have kept their benchmark rate pinned near zero since the pandemic’s onset in March and rolled out several emergency lending programs geared toward fostering liquid trading conditions in financial markets.

That aggressive action has helped to calm investors. But progress toward recovery has been complicated in recent weeks by a new wave of coronavirus outbreaks across major states in the South and West including Texas, Florida, California and Arizona.

High-Frequency Economic Indicators Point to Stall in Rebound

High-frequency economic indicators are pointing to a stall in the rebound as consumers hold back from activities like dining out and air travel, which had started to bounce back when the earlier wave of outbreaks dissipated.

Investors have remained relatively optimistic despite renewed signs of weakness in the economy, thanks in large part to rising hopes that researchers will soon succeed in developing a vaccine.

Before Wednesday’s Decision, S&P 500 Index was Near Record High

Before Wednesday’s decision, the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks was within about 4 per cent of the record high set in mid-February after losing more than a third of its value in the early days of the pandemic.

Bloomberg.com

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