Ethereum has shown notable strength over the past two weeks, delivering a substantial rally that has implications for both price action and on-chain activity across the ecosystem. Between November 4 and November 19, ETH climbed roughly 30%, marking a period of renewed momentum for the leading altcoin by market capitalization. During this stretch, the price pierced the $3,000 barrier for the first time since August 2, highlighting a renewed willingness among buyers to push the market higher. Although recent sessions have seen the bullish pace cool somewhat, the confluence of on-chain metrics and a supportive technical setup points toward continued upside potential for Ether in the near term. Traders and observers will likely keep a close eye on liquidity, network activity, and the broader macro environment to gauge the durability of this move.
ETH price rally and near-term outlook
The recent price action has reinforced a narrative of renewed investor interest and momentum behind Ethereum. The ascent to and above the $3,000 level serves as a psychological and technical milestone that often attracts fresh buying interest from a broad set of market participants, including both retail traders and larger capital allocators. The move within this two-week window reflects a combination of improved sentiment, increasing engagement with the Ethereum ecosystem, and a growing appetite for layer-2 and sidechain activity that complements the core chain. While the most rapid portion of the rally appears to have moderated in the immediate aftermath, the setup remains constructive for additional upside, supported by a series of on-chain signals that historically accompany sustained price advances.
A key feature of the price action is the identification of a technical pattern that could guide the next phase of the move. The four-hour timeframe has formed a U-shaped recovery pattern, a structure that implies a bottoming process followed by a gradual climb higher as buyers step in at multiple price levels. If Ethereum remains within the boundaries of this pattern, attention will turn to the neckline around the $3,376 level. Surpassing this neckline on a decisive close would likely propel ETH toward the bullish objective implied by the prevailing pattern, which sits near $3,735. This target translates to an upside of more than 20% from current levels, painting a plausible path for further gains provided that support holds and momentum persists.
Conversely, a pullback from around $3,100 could trigger a re-test of the U-shaped bottom near $3,000. The $3,000 region has historically acted as a robust zone of immediate support, anchored by the fact that roughly 3.1 million ETH were previously accumulated by about 3 million addresses at that price level. This on-chain footprint suggests a strong base of holders who could absorb selling pressure and catalyze another phase of accumulation if price action turns south. Overcoming resistance near $3,200 presents another hurdle, a level at which approximately 6.1 million ETH were accumulated by around 4.25 million addresses. Clearing this barrier would be essential for Ethereum to complete the bullish pattern and realize further upside momentum. These dynamic levels—support at $3,000 and resistance near $3,200—frame a critical zone where on-chain activity and holder behavior reinforce the price narrative, underscoring the close interplay between technical targets and distribution dynamics in this market.
In parallel with the price trajectory, the market environment remains receptive to continued upside if the pattern unfolds as anticipated. A decisive break above the $3,376 neckline would act as a green light toward a more pronounced up move, potentially pushing ETH into the higher target around $3,735. This progression would align with the technical geometry of the U-shaped recovery and could be amplified by a broader improvement in market sentiment, liquidity provisioning, and the continued expansion of ecosystem activity across mainnet and Layer 2 networks. As the price carves higher terrain, traders may re-evaluate risk parameters, adjust stop levels, and calibrate exposure to accommodate shifting volatility regimes. The confluence of price structure, key levels, and on-chain behavior forms a cohesive narrative that supports the case for continued upside in the near term, albeit with the customary caveats that accompany rapid market moves and evolving macro conditions.
Growing network activity and engagement
A central driver of Ethereum’s recent strength has been a marked uptick in network activity, underscoring a broad-based increase in engagement across the Ethereum ecosystem and its interoperable layers. Over the last month, daily active addresses (DAAs) on Ethereum have risen steadily, climbing from about 377,065 on October 27 to 487,941 on November 19. This sustained rise signals a clear trend of expanding user participation across multiple chains within the ecosystem, including Ethereum mainnet, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, xSync, and Base. The growing DAAs narrative reflects heightened use of the network for a range of activities—from on-chain finance and decentralised applications (DeFi) to gaming, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and other interactive services—that collectively drive on-chain demand and activity.
This surge in user engagement is echoed by a corresponding increase in transaction counts. Ethereum daily transactions reached 1.29 million on November 15, up from 962,160 on October 27, illustrating a robust expansion in on-chain activity beyond simple trading. The rise in transaction volume is not solely indicative of active trading; it also marks higher utilisation of decentralized applications and services hosted on the Ethereum network and its ecosystem partners. As activity intensifies, the overall on-chain economy benefits from more frequent interactions with smart contracts, liquidity pools, and cross-chain bridges that link the Ethereum mainnet with Layer 2 solutions and other compatible networks. The net effect is a positive feedback loop—more users and more transactions contribute to greater aggregate activity, which in turn can attract further capital and developers to build new use cases on Ethereum.
The upsurge in network activity has coincided with an uptick in the total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum, which has risen by approximately 25% since November 5. This growth in TVL reflects increased capital allocation to Ethereum-based protocols and products, including DeFi platforms, liquid staking, insurance protocols, and diverse other applications that rely on smart contract functionality. TVL growth is a tangible signal of inflows and user confidence, suggesting that participants are not only trading but also committing capital to long-term, on-chain usage. This dynamic complements the rise in DAAs and daily transactions, reinforcing the narrative of a more vibrant and active Ethereum ecosystem, with cross-chain collaboration and diversified use cases across multiple networks. In aggregate, the data points paint a picture of broader engagement rather than a narrow focus on price movements alone.
From a broader standpoint, the expansion in network activity across Ethereum’s ecosystem also suggests that development activity and user adoption are gaining traction in parallel with price appreciation. The increase in DAAs indicates that holders and new entrants are actively participating in the network, while higher transaction counts reflect greater application usage and interoperability among the mainnet and its associated Layer 2 and multi-chain environments. As more users interact with Ethereum-based services, liquidity tends to deepen, and the demand for gas fees and efficient execution pathways can rise, further reinforcing the structural health of the network during a period of price strength. This alignment between price performance and on-chain fundamentals can contribute to sustained upside if the momentum remains intact and the ecosystem continues to deliver scalable, user-centric experiences.
On-chain sentiment and smart money
Beyond raw usage metrics, sentiment indicators provide another essential lens to assess Ethereum’s near-term trajectory. Smart money, representing the capital managed by experienced investors and large holders, has shown a rising interest in Ether. Data from market analytics sources indicates a bifurcated sentiment dynamic: the general retail crowd carries a relatively modest bullish stance, while seasoned investors, often referred to as whales, express significantly stronger optimism. Specifically, sentiment scores suggest that the broader market participants hold a cautious but positive outlook, whereas smart money displays a markedly positive sentiment that signals confidence in continued price appreciation.
In numerical terms, the broader crowd’s sentiment register sits at a subdued level, with a value around 0.06 on a scale that captures bullish momentum. This relatively muted score indicates limited enthusiasm among casual traders or smaller participants who may be awaiting additional confirmations or catalysts before committing larger sums to ETH. In contrast, smart money has posted a materially higher score—approximately 2.28 on the same scale—signaling substantial confidence from more experienced investors and large-scale capital allocators. This divergence between retail and institutional sentiment can be a powerful driver of price action, as smart money tends to influence subsequent market participation through positioning strategies, liquidity provision, and risk management practices.
The implications of this smart money tilt are that near-term upside for ETH could be supported by perceived credibility and risk tolerance among sophisticated investors. If smart money continues to accumulate or maintain elevated exposure, price trajectory may benefit from a longer period of sustained demand, even in the face of occasional pullbacks on the retail side. Conversely, if the smart money stance shifts or if macro conditions deteriorate, any retracement could be sharper given the weight of larger holders exiting or reassessing positions. It is essential to monitor how these sentiment dynamics evolve in relation to price levels, on-chain activity, and broader market developments to gauge whether the current configuration is likely to persist or revert toward a more balanced stance.
This sentiment framework, combined with the on-chain activity and price action, contributes to a more nuanced outlook. While retail enthusiasm remains measured, the enthusiasm demonstrated by sophisticated participants underscores a belief in Ethereum’s continued relevance and potential to deliver value through its core network effects and expanding ecosystem. The balance between retail caution and smart money confidence can lead to a market environment where Ethereum gradually consolidates gains, punctuated by periods of renewed acceleration when catalysts align with favorable on-chain trends. As always, investors should weigh this sentiment alongside technical signals, liquidity conditions, and fundamental developments within the Ethereum ecosystem when making strategy decisions.
Technical setup and price targets
From a technical standpoint, the four-hour chart has formed a U-shaped recovery pattern, a configuration that implies a bottoming process followed by a potential sustained ascent as buyers re-enter at lower price levels and as momentum returns. This pattern suggests that, if price remains within its boundaries, Ethereum could approach the neckline at approximately $3,376. A decisive close above this level would likely propel the ETH/USD pair toward the bullish target of the pattern, which sits near $3,735. This target represents a gain of over 20% from current prices and would mark a meaningful extension of the recent rally, provided that the broader market environment remains supportive and that the pattern remains intact. In practical terms, this scenario would require continued demand, a constructive risk-reward balance for market participants, and a favorable flow of liquidity into Ethereum-based assets and protocols.
On the flip side, if price fails to sustain above critical levels and retreats toward $3,100, a retest of the U-shaped bottom near $3,000 becomes a plausible outcome. The $3,000–$3,100 zone has proven to be a strong magnet for price during volatile periods, acting as a robust floor that can attract buyer interest and offset seller pressure. This zone’s significance is amplified by the cumulative on-chain footprint in that region: roughly 3.1 million ETH were previously accumulated by around 3 million addresses at or near the $3,000 price point. Such a cluster of on-chain holdings creates a sizable support structure, making a meaningful drop less likely to be sustained for long without a material shift in market dynamics.
Beyond the near-term supports, the chart also reveals a recurring hurdle around $3,200, where approximately 6.1 million ETH were accumulated by about 4.25 million addresses. Clearing this resistance is essential to completing the pattern-driven upside and pushing ETH into the upper target zone. The presence of a large concentration of holders around this price can act as a diagnostic gauge for the strength of a breakout. If price can overcome this resistance, the subsequent path toward $3,735 seems more plausible as momentum compounds and market participants push the trend higher. However, failure to breach this area could invite renewed consolidation or a deeper correction, particularly if other market factors, such as macro news or competing crypto developments, tilt risk-reward dynamics unfavorably.
In interpreting these technical signals, it is important to remember that the article is not investment advice. Markets carry inherent risk, and each investor must perform their own due diligence. The described patterns and price targets are analytical constructs designed to offer a framework for understanding potential trajectories under current conditions. They do not guarantee outcomes, and real-world price action can diverge due to evolving liquidity, macro headlines, network developments, or shifts in investor sentiment. Traders should consider a comprehensive set of factors, including on-chain metrics, price structure, order book dynamics, and risk management parameters, before making decisions.
On-chain support, resistance levels, and holder distribution
A deeper look at on-chain distribution reveals how holder activity interacts with price mechanics during this period of volatility and potential upside. The immediate support around $3,000 is reinforced by a substantial accumulation base: roughly 3.1 million ETH were bought by approximately 3 million addresses at this price level, suggesting a robust foundation of ownership that can absorb selling pressure and stabilize price during pullbacks. This concentration of holdings in the lower price region provides a natural cap on downside risk should near-term momentum falter, as long as new capital continues to flow into the market to sustain demand.
In terms of resistance, the barrier near $3,200 has proven to be a meaningful obstacle, with about 6.1 million ETH held by 4.25 million addresses at that level. This considerable cluster indicates a resilient supply wall that must be overcome to unlock additional upside. Clearing this barrier would not only remove a technical hurdle but also signal a shift in the distribution dynamics, potentially prompting further entries by buyers who see the move as part of a broader upward trend. The interplay between these levels—the strong support in the $3,000 zone and the substantial resistance around $3,200—highlights the delicate balance between demand and supply that will shape Ethereum’s near-term trajectory.
The on-chain signals align with the pattern-based outlook, suggesting that a successful bullish breakout could be accompanied by a broad-based increase in activity and a renewed willingness among holders to allocate capital toward ETH. As Ethereum navigates these levels, the behavior of long-term holders and mid-term investors will be critical in determining whether the rally can gain sustainable momentum. The combination of a robust holder base near critical price points, rising daily active addresses, and higher transaction volumes paints a picture of a network that is increasingly utilized and where price dynamics reflect active utilization and participation rather than speculative trading alone.
Market watchers should continue to monitor these on-chain developments alongside price action and sentiment indicators. The synergy between on-chain activity, holder distribution, and technical patterns can provide a more holistic view of Ethereum’s risk-reward profile in the coming weeks. While the formation of the U-shaped recovery pattern and the proximity to key price thresholds offer a blueprint for potential moves, they must be interpreted within the broader context of market conditions, liquidity flows, and ecosystem developments to assess the likelihood and magnitude of future gains.
Investment considerations and risk awareness
It is important to reiterate that this analysis is not investment advice. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any commitments. The current narrative around Ethereum combines price action, on-chain metrics, and sentiment indicators that collectively point toward a favorable setup in the near term. However, the market can respond to a variety of external influences—macro headlines, regulatory developments, competition within the ecosystem, or shifts in participant risk tolerance—that could alter the trajectory in unexpected ways. A prudent approach involves assessing risk tolerance, establishing well-defined entry and exit points, and maintaining discipline in exposure management.
Investors may also consider scenario planning to navigate volatility. For example, a scenario in which ETH breaks above the $3,376 neckline could be supported by continued growth in daily active addresses and transaction volumes, reinforcing confidence in the sustainability of the move. Conversely, a scenario in which price tests the $3,000 support zone may prompt a reassessment of risk and a reallocation of capital to manage downside exposure, especially if the pullback accelerates or if volatility begins to spike. Regardless of the scenario, the critical takeaway is that on-chain activity, holder distribution, and technical structure together shape Ethereum’s path forward, and any decision should reflect a comprehensive view of these interconnected factors.
Across the broader ecosystem, the continued expansion of interlinkages with Layer 2 solutions and cross-chain bridges adds a dimension of resilience to Ethereum’s growth narrative. The activity growth across the mainnet and associated networks indicates a healthy demand surface that can support higher valuation levels if adoption remains robust. This multi-chain activity can also contribute to liquidity depth, improving the efficiency of price discovery and the ability of ETH to absorb selling pressure during periods of volatility. As the ecosystem evolves, developers and users may continue to rely on Ethereum as the core settlement layer for a diverse set of applications, further reinforcing the long-term fundamentals that underpin near-term momentum.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s recent performance reflects a synthesis of stronger price action, rising on-chain engagement, and a favorable sentiment tilt among sophisticated investors. The two-week rally, breaking above the $3,000 mark for the first time since August, sets the stage for a potential continuation toward higher targets if the technical pattern plays out as anticipated. The U-shaped recovery pattern on the four-hour chart, with a neckline near $3,376 and a projected target around $3,735, provides a clear framework for upside potential, while the $3,000–$3,100 support zone and the $3,200 resistance area delineate the critical balance between risk and reward. The growth in daily active addresses, the increase in daily transactions, and the 25% rise in TVL since early November collectively point to a strengthening on-chain backdrop that can underpin price advances.
Smart money’s rising confidence adds a meaningful dimension to the market’s outlook. With a significantly higher sentiment score among experienced investors than the general crowd, Ethereum’s near-term upside could be reinforced by capital inflows driven by institutional or high-net-worth participation. Yet, investors should remain mindful of the usual risks associated with rapid market moves, including volatility spikes, sudden shifts in liquidity, and external factors that could alter the equilibrium between demand and supply. The on-chain distribution signals—such as the large cluster of holders around the $3,000 support and the sizable accumulation near $3,200 resistance—serve as useful reference points for interpreting price action in relation to real-world ownership and activity.
Ultimately, Ethereum’s path forward will hinge on the continued alignment of price dynamics with on-chain fundamentals and ecosystem development. If the market sustains the current momentum and the technical pattern remains intact, the trajectory toward higher levels could materialize, supported by ongoing network activity and capital inflows. If, however, momentum cools or external conditions shift unfavorably, price action could revert toward established support zones as holders reassess risk and allocate capital accordingly. As with any asset, careful analysis, disciplined risk management, and ongoing monitoring of both on-chain activity and price signals remain essential for navigating Ethereum’s evolving landscape.