As Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces increasing pressure and scrutiny, the question on everyone’s mind is: will he stay, or will he go? For months now, there have been rumors of his impending resignation, with many predicting that it’s only a matter of time before he announces his departure. But when exactly will this happen? Betters on Polymarket are weighing in, and their predictions are as varied as they are intriguing.
The Resignation Contracts
Two contracts on Polymarket have garnered significant attention, with volumes ranging from low six-figures to high five-figures. These contracts ask a simple question: will Justin Trudeau resign by February or April? The answer, according to the betters, is far from certain.
- February Resignation: With a volume of $120,000 and an implied probability of 35%, this contract suggests that Trudeau’s resignation is more likely than not to occur by February. However, it’s essential to note that this is just one possible scenario, and there are many factors at play.
- April Resignation: This contract has a volume of $90,000 and an implied probability of 25%. It suggests that Trudeau may still be in office come April, but the chances of his resignation are increasing by the day.
The Trigger for an Election
Another intriguing contract on Polymarket asks whether opposition parties will trigger an election by the spring. This is a critical question, as it could have far-reaching consequences for the country and its politics.
- Spring Election: With a volume of $40,000 and an implied probability of 30%, this contract suggests that there’s a growing likelihood of an election being triggered in the coming months. However, it’s essential to remember that this is just one possible scenario, and many factors could influence the outcome.
The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail
On Monday, two of Canada’s largest newspapers, the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail, broke news that Trudeau’s resignation was imminent. According to their sources, the announcement could come as early as Monday or before Wednesday. While this has sparked widespread interest and speculation, some betters on Polymarket are skeptical about the accuracy of these reports.
- Monday Resignation: With a volume of $45,000 and an implied probability of 24%, this contract suggests that Trudeau’s resignation is unlikely to occur by Monday. However, it’s essential to remember that this is just one possible scenario, and many factors could influence the outcome.
- Wednesday Resignation: This contract has a volume of $10,000 and an implied probability of 72%. It suggests that Trudeau may still be in office come Wednesday, but the chances of his resignation are increasing by the day.
Angus Reid Polling
The Angus Reid Institute recently released a poll that gives Trudeau a dismal 22% approval rating. This is a stark contrast to his previous ratings and has sparked widespread concern about his leadership. According to polling aggregators, if an election were held today, Trudeau’s Liberals would be decimated, winning only 46 seats while the Conservatives would take 225.
Canada as the 51st State?
In a bizarre twist, betters on Polymarket are giving a 3% chance that Canada will join the United States as its 51st state by July. This idea started as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump’s social media accounts but has since gained traction among some enthusiasts.
Conclusion
Justin Trudeau’s resignation is a hot topic of discussion, and betters on Polymarket are weighing in with their predictions. While some contracts suggest that his departure is imminent, others propose alternative scenarios. As the situation unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how these predictions play out.
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